Assessing Agricultural drought vulnerability based on a Compsite index. A case study of Uganda .

Abstract

In the recent years, Uganda has been experiencing drought incidences which are increasing in the intensity and frequency due to natural resource degradation, population pressure, development and climate change. Thousands of people have been affected, with massive displacement occurring (GOU, 2007). There is growing demand for spatially explicit information among stakeholders across public and private institutions regarding vulnerability to Agricultural Drought at the local scale for implementation of long term drought management measures. This study was conducted over all districts in Uganda, to determine the Agricultural drought indicative parameters and to determine the spatial variability of the Agricultural Drought in the entire country and, thereby identify vulnerable hotspots. A biophysical and socio-economic indicator based integrated vulnerability assessment technique was used to map Agricultural Drought vulnerability. Indicators were generated and analyzed under three components of vulnerability, namely exposure, susceptibility and adaptive capacity; and finally aggregated into a single vulnerability index. The values of all indicators were normalized by considering their functional relationship with vulnerability, and factor analysis was then used to assign weights to all indicators. The Agricultural Drought vulnerability index (ADVI) was finally determined from the weighted sum of all indicators and mapped over the entire country. The districts in the northern region and some parts of north-eastern region had high to extreme vulnerability to Agricultural drought; while districts in the south- western part of the country were the least vulnerable. The rest of the districts had mild and moderate vulnerability to Agricultural Drought. This study shows that vulnerability mapping is crucial in determining the varying degrees of vulnerability of different localities, and generating information that can help researchers, policy makers, private and public institutions in formulating site-specific adaptation strategies and prioritizing adaptation investments to the most