Assessing the Impact of Mean Temperatures on the Current and Future Robusta Coffee Suitability in the Administrative Regions of Uganda

Abstract

Robusta coffee is a cornerstone of Uganda’s agricultural sector, contributing significantly to export revenues and the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers. However, climate change, particularly rising mean temperatures, threatens the suitability of coffee-growing regions, potentially disrupting production and economic stability. This study examines the impact of temperature increases on the current and future viability of Robusta coffee cultivation across Uganda, addressing a critical gap in region-specific climate adaptation research. Through geospatial analysis and multi-criteria evaluation (MCE), this research integrates climatic, land-use, and topographical datasets to map current coffee suitability and project future trends under climate change scenarios. Data sources include historical temperature records (1990–2023), satellite-derived land cover classifications, and climate projections (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for 2050 and 2100. Analytical methods involve suitability mapping using weighted overlays, change detection through raster subtraction, and validation against observed coffee production data from the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA). Findings indicate that Central and Western Uganda currently exhibit high suitability scores (0.8–0.9), whereas Northern Uganda shows lower suitability (0.3–0.5) due to elevated temperatures (~28°C). Future projections reveal declining suitability in Central and Eastern regions, with reductions of up to -0.4 under SSP5-8.5 by 2100. Conversely, Western highland areas demonstrate resilience, with slight improvements (+0.2 to +0.3) due to their elevation- buffered climate. The study highlights at-risk regions and underscores the urgent need for adaptive strategies, such as agroforestry, irrigation investments, and climate-resistant coffee varieties. By providing evidence-based insights, this research equips policymakers, farmers, and stakeholders with actionable data to safeguard Uganda’s coffee industry against climate- induced threats, ensuring its continued economic and agricultural viability.