An analysis of the impact of export revenue on a norminal GDP of Uganda(2014-2024).

Abstract

This study examined the impact of export revenue on the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Uganda using annual time-series data covering the period 2014–2024. The study was guided by three objectives: to analyze the trends in export revenue and nominal GDP, determine the relationship between export revenue and nominal GDP, and assess the effect of export revenue on nominal GDP in Uganda. Secondary data were obtained from the World Bank, Bank of Uganda, Uganda Bureau of Statistics, and the International Monetary Fund. The study employed descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, and multiple time-series regression analysis. Data were analyzed using Stata Version 16.0 and Microsoft Excel. The findings revealed that both export revenue and nominal GDP exhibited an upward trend over the study period. Correlation analysis showed a strong positive relationship between export revenue and nominal GDP (r = 0.817), indicating that increases in export revenue were associated with increases in nominal GDP. Regression results showed that export revenue had a positive coefficient (β = 0.548), suggesting a positive influence on nominal GDP. However, the effect was not statistically significant at the 5 percent level (p = 0.473). The COVID-19 dummy variable had a negative but statistically insignificant effect on nominal GDP, while the post-COVID timeline variable had a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP. The study concludes that export revenue contributes positively to Uganda's economic performance, although its effect on nominal GDP was not statistically significant during the study period. The study recommends export diversification, value addition, industrialization, expansion of export markets, strengthen resilience of export sector. This study examined the impact of export revenue on the nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Uganda using annual time-series data covering the period 2014–2024. The study was guided by three objectives: to analyze the trends in export revenue and nominal GDP, determine the relationship between export revenue and nominal GDP, and assess the effect of export revenue on nominal GDP in Uganda. Secondary data were obtained from the World Bank, Bank of Uganda, Uganda Bureau of Statistics, and the International Monetary Fund. The study employed descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, and multiple time-series regression analysis. Data were analyzed using Stata Version 16.0 and Microsoft Excel. The findings revealed that both export revenue and nominal GDP exhibited an upward trend over the study period. Correlation analysis showed a strong positive relationship between export revenue and nominal GDP (r = 0.817), indicating that increases in export revenue were associated with increases in nominal GDP. Regression results showed that export revenue had a positive coefficient (β = 0.548), suggesting a positive influence on nominal GDP. However, the effect was not statistically significant at the 5 percent level (p = 0.473). The COVID-19 dummy variable had a negative but statistically insignificant effect on nominal GDP, while the post-COVID timeline variable had a positive and statistically significant effect on GDP. The study concludes that export revenue contributes positively to Uganda's economic performance, although its effect on nominal GDP was not statistically significant during the study period. The study recommends export diversification, value addition, industrialization, expansion of export markets, strengthen resilience of export sector.