Macro-economic drivers of fish export volume in Uganda.
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The overall objective of this study was to determine the extent to which certain factors influence and the performance of the key fish export products. Furthermore, the study attempted to tease out the macroeconomic variables (growth rate (EGR), foreign price level (Pf), real exchange rate (RER), real interest rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Money Supply (M2) and Inflation rate) that constrain fish export growth. Therefore, the main objective of the study is to analyze the determinants of fish export volumes in Uganda using panel data for the year 1991-2010. This study utilized secondary annual time series covering the period of 1991 to 2010. This data was obtained exclusively from International Financial Statistics, the validity and reliability of the data collected was based on similarity and sameness of the facts and figures from the multiple sources such as Bank of Uganda, Uganda Bureau of Statistics. The variables identified were export growth rate (EGR), foreign price level (Pf), real exchange rate (RER), real interest rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Money Supply (M2) and Inflation rate. This study, unlike for interest rate (%) and Inflation rate (%), the study suggested to reject the null hypothesis for the variables such as GDP (in billions), M2 (in billions), Exchange rate (%) and Fish export volumes (in tons) since their p-values 0.15714, 0.10661, 0.69638 and 0.32256 respectively are greater than the usual criterion value implying that the distribution of the residuals are normally distributed. The study reveals that the majority of the selected variables do not violate assumptions of normality. A pairwise correlation pointed evidence of a moderately negative statistically significant relationship between inflation and GDP or economic growth in the country (rho = -0.5363). This means an increase in interest rates or inflation would automatically bring down fish export volumes. Besides, exchange rates possessed a relatively strong relationship with fish export volumes implying that an increase in exchange rate would induce the export volumes to hype, this happens when currency depreciation in an economy enhances its competitiveness with the rest of the world and also expands its exports volumes otherwise a higher exchange would mean depreciation which devastates the economic-look of a nation. Keen interest should be put to economic growth, inflation and foreign price as they have been deemed to highly castigate fish export volume, intuitively, the magnitude of fall of export volume is intense with increasing inflation followed by international price of fish and the least is GDP.