Assessing the impact of flooding on Lake Victoria on property values: the case of Port bell, Luzira

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of flooding on the value of property in Portbell. We find that a location within a flood zone significantly lowers property values even if we control the proximity to a watercourse, the history of flooding and neighborhoods effects. Although the flooding discount is more compelling for waterfront properties, it is still highly significant for dwellings further from the water. As expected, the effect of flood risk on house prices is stronger in the months following major flood events but, interestingly, it almost disappears in a hot market when buyers have arguably less negotiating power This study analyses the effect of flooding on property in the flooded area of Portbell, it futher identifies the social economic impacts of flooding to the livelihoods in Portbell Luzira, GIS software is used to identify the spatial temporal patterns of the floods. Lastly compares potential values with similar property in adjourning areas that are not affected by flooding. The analysis covers the period from 2020 to 2021. The study period determines what impact a major flood has on property values whether this effect is ongoing or decreases the longer the area is free from flood affectivity.