A time series analysis of the neonatal mortality rate in Uganda from 1965 to 2019

Abstract

The major objective of this study was to carry out a time series analysis of the Neonatal mortality rate in Uganda from 1965 to 2019. Neonatal mortality is an important aspect of any country’s health economy as it can act as an indicator of the country’s health systems proficiency. When children are well catered for at their infancy such that they mature at least to the country’s life expectancy, they could be of great importance to that nation’s steady development. The report provides literature review and empirical findings related to neonatal mortality in Uganda. Secondary data was used which was obtained from the updated World Development Indicators. The report uses the recorded neonatal mortality rate series to establish the presence of a trend and it was established that it was a downward trend. It was also noted that the series were non stationary and this was confirmed with an ADF test after which it was made stationary and this involved differencing three times. Using Arima modelling, a candidate model was chosen from a variety of models with the aid of the ACF and the PACF plots. Arima (1,2,0) was the chosen candidate model which fit the data well. A diagnostic check was further carried out and it confirmed the validity of the model. The model was then used to forecast NMR data for the next 11 years and a notable decrease is anticipated. The report gives a few recommendations on the issue of neonatal mortality in Uganda such as a deliberate sensitization of expecting mothers even when they seem well acquainted with how to nurture their babies. Furthermore, a number of new facilities are still needed in rural areas of Uganda and stocking of the necessary equipment and health professionals.