Statistical web application software for malaria analysis and forecast in Uganda

Abstract

Malaria is a disease spread by anopheles’ female mosquito and caused by plasmodium parasites. the high-altitude areas in Eastern Africa have been reported to experience increased cases of malaria. The government of the Republic of Uganda has responded through intensifying programs that can potentially minimize malaria transmission while reducing associated fatalities. This study aims to develop a web-based application that can compute tests, difference, perform Autocorrelation and Partial Autocorrelation of malaria data. This is basically to enable health organizations to make better forecasts to further minimize the spread of malaria Data obtained from malaria Atlas was obtained and used to develop a web based application that can run analysis and be able to predict the future malaria trends in Uganda., to improve accuracy, ARIMA models are incorporated into the system The web application will allow entry of data, and the it will make analysis, plot graphics, compute statistical analysis, use machine learning to train data and then use the data to make forecasts of the future. The results show that despite the favorable seasons for malaria existing in Uganda, malaria infections are significantly reducing in the county basing on the forecast predicted by the ARIMA model. In conclusion using available data we can determine decrease in infections rate but there are very rural areas where malarial infections are not treated and rescored in hospitals but rather done at home which doesn’t give sufficient evidence of the actual malaria spread.