Effect of population change on Uganda’s economic growth

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to assess the effect of population change on economic growth in Uganda. This study also aimed at determining the other macro factors that affect economic growth and their relationship with economic growth. These included; inflation rates, unemployment rates, exchange rates and literacy levels in Uganda. This study used secondary data on the study variables obtained from United Nations-Population prospects and World bank for Uganda between 1990 and 2021. Binary logistic regression model was used to analyze the data using the statistical package, SPSS, in order to determine the relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variable. The researcher found out that there was a positive significant relationship between; population change and economic growth(R=0.922, P=0.000), birth rate and population change(R=0.988, P=0.000), net migration and population change (R=0.329, P=0.033) and lastly death rate and population change(R=0.929, P=0.000). While there was a positive non-significant relationship between; net migration rate and GDP(R=0.261,P=0.075), unemployment rate and GDP(R=0.220,P=0.113). There was a negative significant relationship between; birth rate and GDP(R=-0.959,P=0.000), death rate and GDP(R=-0.953,P=0.000), while there was a negative non-significant relationship between; inflation rate and GDP(R=-0.036,P=0.422), and exchange rate and GDP(R=-0.372, P=0.130). It was from this that the researcher came up with possible remedies to reduce the effect of population change on Uganda’s economic growth and the effect of population change factors and economic growth. First, the government of Uganda should invest in human capital formation, to equip people with various skills and knowledge as this may in the long run ensure that the economy grows higher with or without population change. Secondly, the government and policy makers should also provide financial support to the youths to encourage them to create jobs, this will reduce unemployment levels and promote economic growth.