Time series analysis of Uganda's export services

Abstract

The overall objective of the research study was to perform a time series analysis to ascertain a trend, seasonal patterns and lastly to forecast for the next three financial years (2021-2026) of Uganda`s exports in services for the past twenty years (2002-2021). The research study found out that the current GDP of Uganda as of 2023 is US$ 49.79 billion of which exports of goods and service as a percentage of GDP is 15.78 percent as the latest value from 2021. The research study presents different literature about Uganda`s exports in services as well as international trade in service that has been reviewed by different stakeholders, ministries and organizations like UBOS, United nations conference on trade and development (UNCTAD), Uganda policy reviews and others. The research study further found out that Uganda`s exports of goods and services has a positive trend over the past twenty years and 68.76% of the variations in the Uganda`s export services are explained by the number of years. A line plot fitted shows a steady increase in Uganda`s export service from 2002 to 2014 from which exports of services declined in years 2015, 2016 and 2020. The study also found out that , the average value of Uganda`s exported services for the past twenty years is US$ 1364700, the lowest value of service ever exported is US$ 225000 and the biggest value of service exported is US$ 2447000 for the years 2002 to 2021 with commercial services being the major export service. The research further found out that Uganda`s exports of service has a seasonal pattern and lastly an ARIMA model (2,1,0) was identified as good fit for forecasting Uganda`s exports of service. The forecasted exports of services for the future five years showed an increase in Uganda`s exports of services. Lastly the research study proposes that there is need to provide support to the existing services sectors and identify services where competitive and comparative advantage exists as well as assisting in evaluation of market accessibility which would in turn help in rising her receipts realized from export of services as well as putting in place strategic measures of capturing and accounting for services Uganda exports for better compilation of GDP and improving on macroeconomic decision and policy making.