The impact of climate change on coffee exports in Uganda

Abstract

The study focused on determining how climate change patterns in temperature and rainfall in Uganda affect coffee production and exports for the last twelve years from 2010 to 2021 using secondary time series data from the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) and Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS). This study was majorly meant to ensure sustainable consumption and production of coffee in Uganda alongside combating climate change and its impacts for Uganda to attain her vision 2040 in accordance with international development guidelines as highlighted by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG’s). The researcher employed a qualitative time series study design at both univariate, bivariate and multivariate level with 95% level of confidence using Stata as the analysis tool. The study results showed a positive statistically significant impact (t=10.93 with p-value=0.000) between annual coffee exports and annual marketed produce of coffee. There was also a positive statistically significant impact of average annual rainfall and annual coffee exports ascertained by a p-value less the 5% level of significance (t=0.619 and p-value=0.019) at multivariate level. Average annual temperature was not significantly affecting the volume of exports though its relationship was negative. The study also picked up the concept of value addition in the attributed to the non- exported portion of coffee but rather locally produced over the years. The study was able to provide insights into the impacts of climate change on coffee exports in Uganda and the adaptation strategies used by coffee farmers. It also identified the policies implemented by the government to mitigate the impacts of climate change on coffee production and exports which include but not limited to; improving the rate of value addition on all agricultural products to increase their prices on international markets, reducing the rate of deforestation to raise rainfall levels and reduce the threats of drought during the year, there should be irrigation facilities in place to ensure agriculture flourishes all year round and the market size both locally and internationally should be increased especially export markets for Ugandan coffee.