Factors preventing Uganda from realising demographic dividends

Abstract

This study aims at analyzing the factors preventing Uganda from realising demographic dividends. Using secondary time-series quarterly data covering the period from 2012 to 2019, this study analyzes the relationship between GDP and factors such as fertility rates, age dependence ratio, infant mortality rates, population growth rate and modern contraceptive prevalence rate in Uganda. The dissertation also examines the short-run and long-run effect of factors such as total fertility rate, infant mortality rates and population growth rate on GDP in addition to their causal relationship with the GDP. Relevant literature in the research study by various scholars including relevant concepts was also cited as shown by Chapter two. Furthermore, the chapter documents in detail reviews of different researchers in regards to demographic and health factors that influence GDP. To achieve the required objectives, correlation and regression analysis were used. Specifically, the ARDL model was used to examine both the short-run and long-run effects of the factors such as Total fertility rate, Infant mortality rate and Population growth rate on GDP. In addition, descriptive analysis was used to analyze the characteristics of the different variables in the research study. The study found a significant positive relationship between the population growth rate, modern contraceptive prevalence rate and the GDP implying a unit increase in those mentioned independent variables would lead to a unit increase in the GDP. The infant mortality rates, total fertility rate, age dependence ratio were all found to be negatively related to the GDP implying a unit increase in these mentioned independent variables would lead to a unit ‘decrease in the GDP thus placing these factors as some of the major hinderances towards Uganda’s realisation of demographic dividends. Long-run relationship was found to exist in the variables which is indicated by the presence of cointegration in the used model. In the short-run, population growth rate was not a significant predictor of the GDP. Similarly, the total fertility rate was not significant predictor of the GDP in the short-run. An increase in the infant mortality rate by 1% led to an increase in the GDP by 11.24649 as shown by the positive co-efficient (11.24649) in the short run. The GDP was e(8.387551) when the value of the explanatory variables was 1 in the Short-run period. In the long run population growth rate was a significant predictor of GDP whereby a 1% increase in Population growth rate led to a decrease in the GDP by 2.001401%. Also, the study observes that Population growth rate should be reduced in the long-run in order to increase Uganda’s GDP which in turn might boost Uganda’s chances of realising demographic dividends. Lastly, the study attained a causal relationship between factors such as Total fertility rate, Infant mortality rate and Population growth rate and GDP since their respective chi-square values were less than 0.05 implying that the past values of the independent variables (Total fertility rate, infant mortality rate and Population growth rate) contained information needed to predict the dependent variable (GDP).