An analysis of the real estate cycle phase during covid-19 pandemic and its impact on rental values of shopping malls and arcades in Uganda

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching implications across various sectors of the global economy, including the real estate industry. This research study aims to analyze the Real Estate Cycle Phase during the COVID-19 Pandemic and its specific impact on Rental Values of Shopping Malls and Arcades in Old Kampala, Uganda. The research methodology adopted in this study was a panel longitudinal study which utilized a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative data analysis with qualitative interviews and surveys, researchers sampled 25 Registered Valuation Surveyor and Property Managers of Uganda and examined 5 sampled different Malls and Arcades from 48 Malls and Arcades which were first opened after the first lockdown were repeatedly examined for five different years starting from 2018 to 2022 to detect any changes that might occur over a period of that time in terms of Market Rent Charged and Vacancy Rate, Lettable Space collected to determine the Rental Values which was used to build a model in terms of a linear graph in relationship to the time frame. The findings from the analyzed data and literature review revealed that the Real Estate Cycle Phases during Covid-19 Pandemic was a Recession Phase which had a distinct feature that investors, property owners, and policymakers must be aware of to avoid consequences in the Commercial property market. The results from the data analysis revealed that the Recession Phase had a negative impact on the Rental Values of Malls and Arcades as there was a decrease in the Rental Value as a result of a high Vacancy Rate, low level of demand of rental space of Malls and Arcades in respond to the high supply of rental space. The findings of this research will contribute to the existing literature on the real estate market dynamics during crisis periods, particularly in the context of a developing country like Uganda. It will shed light on the specific effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on rental values of shopping Malls and Arcades, providing valuable insights for real estate investors, property owners, and policymakers to make informed decision.