Impact of climate changing patterns of malaria disease in Kampala district from (2011 to 2020).
Abstract
ABSTRACT
Globally, the prevalence of malaria disease has escalated to over 240 million cases annually and
while over 600,000 deaths occur due to the effect of the problem, emerging data supports the link
between the transmission of malaria and climate change. The study investigated the impact of
climate change on malaria incidences in Kampala under three specific objectives: to examine
trends in annual rainfall and temperature received over Kampala, to analyze trends in malaria
prevalence in Kampala, and to investigate the relationship between climate change and malaria
prevalence. The study followed a quantitative research design in which a longitudinal approach
was employed whereby annual data for 10 years (20112020) was analyzed. Correlation and
regression analyses were performed to test relationship and association between different values
of rainfall and temperature levels with incidences of malaria. The study used Microsoft Excel in
analysis of trends and Stata for correlation and regression analysis. Findings indicated that the
trend for rainfall received over Kampala for the period 2011-2020 has generally been increasing
by 7.5218mm on average every year, while the trend for temperature received over Kampala for
the period 2011-2020 has generally been reducingby 0.1661oC on average every year.
Furthermore, the trend for malaria cases has generally been reducing by 12.798 cases on average
every year for the same study period. There was a statistically significant strong negative
correlation of 0.7830 between malaria prevalence and rainfall amounts received. On the other
hand, a positive moderate and but significant correlation between malaria prevalence and
temperature levels of 0.6909 existed. Findings further revealed that 88.33 % of the variations in
the malaria cases can be explained by rainfall amounts and temperature levels received, and the combined effect of rainfall amounts and temperature levels received have an explanatory power
the number of malaria cases (Prob. > F0.0005 < 0.05). An increase in rainfall amount by 1mm
reduced the number of malaria cases on average by 0.8114 cases, and this was statistically
significant (p-value = 0.002 < 0.05). Similarly, an increase in temperature by 10C increased the
number of malaria cases by 38.23, and this was also statistically significant (p-value = 0.005 <
0.05). The study recommends that the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) should
keep people with rainfall updates reduce potential risks associated with heavy rains, and further
malaria preventive interventions should be employed especially when temperatures rise.