Impact of climate changing patterns of malaria disease in Kampala district from (2011 to 2020).

Abstract

ABSTRACT Globally, the prevalence of malaria disease has escalated to over 240 million cases annually and while over 600,000 deaths occur due to the effect of the problem, emerging data supports the link between the transmission of malaria and climate change. The study investigated the impact of climate change on malaria incidences in Kampala under three specific objectives: to examine trends in annual rainfall and temperature received over Kampala, to analyze trends in malaria prevalence in Kampala, and to investigate the relationship between climate change and malaria prevalence. The study followed a quantitative research design in which a longitudinal approach was employed whereby annual data for 10 years (20112020) was analyzed. Correlation and regression analyses were performed to test relationship and association between different values of rainfall and temperature levels with incidences of malaria. The study used Microsoft Excel in analysis of trends and Stata for correlation and regression analysis. Findings indicated that the trend for rainfall received over Kampala for the period 2011-2020 has generally been increasing by 7.5218mm on average every year, while the trend for temperature received over Kampala for the period 2011-2020 has generally been reducingby 0.1661oC on average every year. Furthermore, the trend for malaria cases has generally been reducing by 12.798 cases on average every year for the same study period. There was a statistically significant strong negative correlation of 0.7830 between malaria prevalence and rainfall amounts received. On the other hand, a positive moderate and but significant correlation between malaria prevalence and temperature levels of 0.6909 existed. Findings further revealed that 88.33 % of the variations in the malaria cases can be explained by rainfall amounts and temperature levels received, and the combined effect of rainfall amounts and temperature levels received have an explanatory power the number of malaria cases (Prob. > F0.0005 < 0.05). An increase in rainfall amount by 1mm reduced the number of malaria cases on average by 0.8114 cases, and this was statistically significant (p-value = 0.002 < 0.05). Similarly, an increase in temperature by 10C increased the number of malaria cases by 38.23, and this was also statistically significant (p-value = 0.005 < 0.05). The study recommends that the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) should keep people with rainfall updates reduce potential risks associated with heavy rains, and further malaria preventive interventions should be employed especially when temperatures rise.