Assessment of trend of non-performing loans and loan loss provisions of foundation for international community assistance bank in the period 2006-2015.
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The objective of this study was to assess if there is trend in the non-performing loans and loan loss provisions of Foundation for International Community Assistance Bank. Financial reports of the bank were used to analyze for ten years (2006-2015). The assessment was made using quarterly data from Foundation for International Community Assistance Bank comprising of 40 records. The two variables were analyzed by use of a time series approach based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model. In the model, Non-Performing Loan Ratio (NPLR) and Loan Loss Provision Ratio (LLPR) as performance indicators. The results revealed that Non-Performing Loan and Loan Loss Provision Ratio was found to be having a downward trend as proven by the Augmented Dickey Fuller test and the line plots which had negative slope. However, Non-Performing Loan and Loan Loss Provision Ratio were found to be stationary at first difference and 5% level of significance. Non-Performing Loan and Loan Loss Provision Ratio were modeled using ARIMA (2, 1, 2), and ARIMA (2,1, 1) respectively with the first term representing the Auto regressive order, the second term showing the level of differencing and the third term showing the Moving averages order. The study therefore concludes that Foundation for International Community Assistance bank’s performance is improving over the years. This can be seen by decreasing Non-Performing Loan Ratio and Loan Loss Provision Ratio over time, it is recommended the bank managers maintain their efforts to improve its performance, especially in controlling the Non-Performing Loan. These findings suggest important implications for determining banks’ performance. The research further recommends that the bank managers should maintain their efforts to the credit risk management, especially to control the Non-Performing Loan. That is to say, managers should evaluate more accurately regarding the ability to pay back when borrowing. Last but not least, it is recommended that another way to develop the existing research would be performing similar research but on a different commercial Bank.