Assessing the impact of changes in lancover and climate on urban flooding: A case of Kampala
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Urban flooding (excess rainfall runoff) has continued to present itself in many cities around the world especially in developing countries. In Uganda, the capital, Kampala experiences urban flooding. Dynamics in the land use/ land cover and climate (rainfall) have been presented by many writers as the major contributors to flood hazard. The variations in climate i.e. the increase in the intensities of rainfall amounts received have potential to increase the flood risk. Changes in land cover on the other hand, for example conversion of vegetated areas to built-up increases the impervious surfaces and hence increases runoff. The impacts of these changes on flooding/ surface runoff can however be simulated using satellite imagery and remote sensing approaches. This study used Landsat images of 1995, 2001 and 2016 to perform image processing, classification and change detection. The soil map and Digital Elevation model of Kampala were used in simulating surface runoff. It was observed that the rate at which vegetation was converted into built-up between the periods 1995-2001 and 2001-2016 is 9.23% and 7.64% respectively. The CA Markov model was validated using the classified map of 2016 as reference and when evaluated, a correlation coefficient, R2, of 0.9626 was obtained. This showed a strong positive relationship between the predicted map and classified land cover map of 2016. The model was then used to project land cover of 2025.