Time Series Analysis of Causes of Road Accidents in Uganda (2008 – 2017)

Abstract

This study was undertaken with the aim of assessing the time series of the causes of road accidents in Uganda. Secondary data was collected from Natete Police Station and statistical abstracts from 2008 to 2017. Augmented Dicker fuller test, Partial Auto correlation function, Auto correlation function, Cumulative Periodogram, white noise test and the Durbin-Watson test were used. The results from the study show that accidents caused by under influence of alcohol are forecasted to be constant over time that is 232.9. The forecast also shows that the highest cause of road accidents would be careless driving followed by reckless/dangerous driving and the lowest cause would be obstacle on carriage way. The study recommends that the police and government should put up measures to reduce on the highest causes of road accidents. The government through the Uganda National Roads Authority should improve on the roads by widening them, placing humps and traffic lights on busy roads so as to reduce on the various causes of road accidents like over speeding. Key words, road accidents, time series analysis and causes of road accidents.