Analysis of the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on coffee exports in Uganda from 2008-2018
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The main purpose of this study was to establish the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on coffee exports in Uganda 2008-2018. It was driven by five major objectives to examine the significant influence of exchange rate fluctuation on coffee exports for the period of 2008-2018, to examine the effect of inflation rate on the coffee exports for the period of 2008-2018, to assess the relationship between interest rate and the coffee exports for the period of 2008-2018, to find out the relationship between price of coffee and the coffee exports for the period of 2008-2018, to establish the trend in the performance of coffee exports in Uganda between the study period of 2008-2018. Using time series from World Bank, Bank of Uganda and UCDA, Both regression analyses were applied to investigate and build a model for explaining the variation in export of coffee. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test for stationary was employed in this study to test the stationary the export of coffee in Uganda representing Uganda's export volume and value of coffee is considered as dependent variables in the study. Exchange rate volatility is divided into price ,interest rate, inflation rate which are the independent variables. The exchange rate volatility was calculated by using standard deviation of variance of normal effect of exchange rate.