Modelling Uganda's total primary energy supply to the end user by 2040.
MetadataShow full item record
This study sought to model Uganda’s primary energy supply to end-user leading to 2040. As much as Uganda is endowed with a number of natural resources such as lakes, rivers, wind, sun, geothermal, its primary energy supply mix is dominated by biomass usage in form of charcoal, firewood, and crop residue previously estimated at over 90% of the energy supply. The challenge with the current energy supply model is that there is an over dependence on biomass which has detrimental effects to the environment and health also piles pressure on the few limited resources and as such there was a need to assess the current status quo and subsequently develop a different model leading to 2040. The key objectives of this study were therefore to analyze and quantify the current total primary energy supply and sources within the country’s enclave in order to develop an energy balance Sankey diagram and a least cost energy plan leading to 2040. The energy modelling undertaken involves profiling of hydro, thermal, solar, biomass, petroleum which are the current sources within the primary energy mix, quantification of the existent sources and potential sources, an analysis of the supply streams detailing the losses, a GIS representation of the sources developed from atlases and GIS software. A Sankey diagram was developed to demonstrate energy flows from the respective sources to the different end user categories. It also details the losses incurred within the transmission and distribution networks. A least cost generation plan leading to 2040 was developed with the PSIP model forecasting demand, supply. From the plan, the projected energy supply and demand will stand at 4,540 MW, biomass inform of charcoal and firewood will stand at 2.8 million and 25.7 million metric tonnes respectively. The implication of this plan is that there will be a need to match supply with demand both in the short term and long term.