Time series analysis of malaria cases in Rwanda for the period 2012-2018
Mudaheranwa, Augustin King
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The main objective of the study was to establish the time series properties of malaria cases in Rwanda.In this study, secondary data was collected from the hospital’s data records on malaria cases with respect to year and severity. The data collected was thereafter entered, using Ms Excel and STATA. Tests of hypotheses using Dickey Fuller test at 95% confidence level were done to determine whether there was a trend in malaria incidence. An ARIMA model was then fittedin order to provide a more reliable forecast.The results from the study revealed that malaria cases are highly affected by seasons.In Rwanda there are two seasons, dry seasons that occur from June to mid-September, then from December to February that record a large number of malaria cases. The wet season starts from March to May, then from October to November that records a slight decrease in malaria cases.It was also found out that malaria incidence was estimated to be decreasing in the future though at a slow rate.Arising from the study,two recommendations were proposed; First, preventive care should be a priority. People should be sensitized on the importance of mosquito nets, indoor Residual Spraying. Second, awareness on mosquito activity, factors that attract mosquitoes such as bushes and swamps, the different seasons for mosquito activity should be provided through education and the media.