Contribution of the Agricultural Sub-Sectors to the Share of the Agricultural Sector in Uganda

Abstract

The study is an econometric analysis of the performance of the agricultural sub sectors to the agricultural GDP of Uganda for the period 2010/11-2017/18. It specifically attempted to; i) study the trend of the performance of Uganda’s agricultural sector in relation to the Quarterly GDP at current prices, ii) analyze the effect of the cash and food crops to the share to the agricultural GDP for Uganda, iii) measure the effect of Livestock and Fisheries to the share to the agricultural Gross Domestic Product for Uganda and; iv) assess the effect of the Forestry sub sector to the share to the agricultural Gross Domestic Product for Uganda. This study relied upon secondary quarterly data which was downloaded from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics Data website. In a bid not to violate the assumptions of OLS Method, the study tested for normality; specification bias; heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation and overall. The study revealed that there is a strong positive statistically significant relationship between Agricultural GDP; fishing and GDP at market prices. Similarly, the food and cash crops have a strongly positive relationship with the agricultural share to the total GDP at market prices while forestry and fishing exhibited weakly positive but statistically significant relationship with the agricultural share to total GDP at market prices. The Multiple Linear Regression in this study revealed that unlike for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Agriculture Support services, all other sub sectors significantly contribute to the total agriculture share. Based on the results obtained in this study, to enhance the share of agricultural sector, there is need to improve almost all the sub sectors in the agriculture division.