Time-Series Analysis of Uganda’s Agricultural Sector Growth and its Contribution To GDP

Abstract

The main purpose of the study was to examine the time-series analysis of Uganda’s agricultural sector growth and its contribution to GDP. Specifically, study focused on studying the effect of cash and food crops, livestock, fisheries, forestry sub sector to the share to the agricultural Gross Domestic Product for Uganda as well as to forecast the average value of agriculture share/contribution to GDP for Uganda. This study relied purely on secondary data. The validity and reliability of the data collected was based on similarity and sameness of the facts and figures from the multiple sources like Ministry of Finance, Economic Development and Planning. The quarterly data used in this study was downloaded from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics Data website. Only time series data methodological techniques were adopted in this study as follows. Results showed that the residuals for the series were not normally distributed. The Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit test revealed that the agriculture share series are non-stationary. The Correlogram function exhibited a damped sine curve while the partial correlogram cuts off after a certain number of lags showing that agricultural share today was also dependent on the previous agriculture values. Consequently, of the six selected sub sectors that make up the agricultural sector, cash crops, food crops, forestry and fisheries were found to significantly predict agricultural share to GDP. Government must reinstate the production of fishing in most lakes and shores in the country, the activity has been jeopardized significantly by severe beatings and humiliation of farmers by security operatives hence reducing the fishing activities and putting down the contribution resulting from the agricultural sector.