The influence of temperature and humidity on the escalation of influenza virus in young children in Kampala
Abstract
The climate patterns over Uganda particularly Kampala district shows a high degree of spatial and
temporal variability. The study main objective was to assess the variation of influenza virus spread
in young children under different weather conditions that is to say temperature and humidity.
Increasing trends for period (2010-2020) were observed in annual relative humidity although
decreasing trends were observed in both maximum and minimum temperatures, however
variations were observed in the temperature and humidity trend. Influenza virus spread in young
children for Kampala district indicated positive increases with (gradient=47) and (R2=0.9845)
over the period.
However the trend of influenza virus spread was constant. the humidity and temperature were
examined in relation to influenza virus escalation in which the trends in both, Mann-Kendal trend
analysis and coefficient of variation were used. Linear regression model was used to generate the
threshold causing influenza virus spread in young children in Kampala district.
Mann Kendall results depict the same scenarios as trend and time series analysis, however,
statistically insignificant trends where observed in both maximum and minimum temperatures and
relative humidity. Though increasing trends were observed in influenza virus spread over Kampala
district. Furthermore regression results showed positive linear relationship between annual relative
humidity and influenza virus spread due to the correlation coefficient that indicated that the
percentage of the variance of influenza virus and relative humidity explain collectively. In
addition, minimum temperatures depicted high positive relationship with influenza virus spread
and this relationship is statistically significant whereas a positive weak linear relationship between
maximum temperatures and influenza virus infections which is statistically insignificant.