School of Statistics and Planning (SSP) Collection
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ItemThe willingness of students to participate in the general elections: a case study of Makerere University(Makerere University, 2026)The main objective of the study was to assess the willingness of students to participate in the general elections. The population under study included the students in Makerere university. In order to determine the sample size, a convenience sampling technique was used in this study. The sample size consisted of 80 respondents. The study adopted a cross-sectional research design with a quantitative approach. This was appropriate for gathering data from a large sample at a single point in time, which facilitated comparisons and analysis of variable relationships. It also engaged the use of structured online questionnaires that were pilot tested in order to ensure that there was data validity as well as reliability. The online questionnaires were filled in by the respective respondents and later the descriptive statistics was generated for instance the pie charts. The results were then presented in tables. Looking at the study findings, it revealed that that majority of the respondents had undertaken the humanities course (35%), the second group of the respondents were those in technology (22.5%), those in business studies (15%) and engineering (13.75%) were also part of the study. Lastly the medical (7.50%) and natural sciences (6.25%) students also were part of the study and responded to questions accordingly. Year two (36.25%) followed by year three (27.50%) had the majority of the respondents, followed by those in year one (16.25%) and year four (11.25%). A few of respondents from year five (8.75%) were reached out to because of their low participation in the different political activities. Hostels (37.50%) and university halls (33.75%) had the majority of respondents residing from there followed by those commuting from home. A few respondents were observed renting around campuses (7.50%). On whether respondents participate in protests and demonstrations, most of the respondents 33 (41.25%) agreed and 18 (22.50%) disagreed on the same. Only 9(11.25%) strongly disagreed and 20(25.0%) strongly agreed. This implies that there is majority of the respondents participate in protests and demonstrations. On whether respondents participate in campaigning and voting different, 41(51.25%) and 19 (23.75%) agreed and strongly agreed respectively. Only 6 (7.5%) strongly disagreed and 14(17.50%) disagreed. On whether respondents understand and have the knowledge on political systems and the subsequent processes, majority of the respondents disagreed 29 (36.25%) and strongly disagreed 19(23.75%) while only 9 (11.25%) strongly agreed and 23 (28.75%) agreed. This implies that majority of the participants are not well knowledgeable with political systems and process. According to the research findings, it was concluded that willingness of students and demographic and institutional factors significantly affect political participation of students at Makerere University. This implies that the higher the education level, age, community engagements, political affiliation, the more the number of students that participate in politics and elections. Makerere University needs to provide high-quality service-learning opportunities for students, that is, service learning that supports the development of autonomy, responsibility, confidence, decision-making and planning skills in young people, and provides plentiful opportunities for in-class discussion and reflection, Provide citizenship education courses that require students to discuss and analyse politics and political issues in relationship to contemporary events. Furthermore, support students in formulating their own views about social and political issues after considering a diversity of perspectives and opinions on those issues and as well allow students to express their own opinions even when their opinions differ from those of other students and from those of the teacher.
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ItemAnalysis of factors associated with recent illness in Kyotera(Makerere University, 2026)This study analysed the factors associated with recent illness among residents of Kyotera Rural Community using secondary data from the 2024 Community Health Survey conducted by the Rakai Health Sciences Program (RHSP). A sample of 500 adult respondents was examined, with recent illness within the previous 14 days as the binary dependent variable and age, sex, education level, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and Body Mass Index (BMI) as the independent variables. Both bivariate (Chi-square tests and Independent Samples t-tests) and multivariate (Binary Logistic Regression) analytical techniques were employed. The findings revealed that age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, education level, and Body Mass Index (BMI) were significant determinants of recent illness. Older individuals were more likely to experience recent illness (OR = 1.212), while smokers had substantially higher odds of reporting recent illness compared to non-smokers (OR = 4.498). Alcohol consumers were also more likely to experience recent illness (OR = 2.361). Higher BMI was associated with increased odds of recent illness (OR = 1.126), whereas higher levels of education reduced the likelihood of recent illness (OR = 0.685). Sex and physical activity were not significant predictors in the multivariable model. The study concludes that demographic, lifestyle, and anthropometric factors significantly influence recent illness among residents of Kyotera Rural Community. Smoking emerged as the strongest modifiable risk factor, while higher educational attainment offered a protective effect. The study recommends strengthening smoking cessation programs, promoting responsible alcohol consumption, encouraging healthy weight management, and enhancing health education initiatives to reduce the burden of recent illness and improve community health outcomes.
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ItemA time series analysis of HIV linkage to care rates in Kampala District, Uganda, 2015 2023(Makerere University, 2026)Routine monitoring of the HIV care cascade is critical for evaluating health service delivery, yet routine data are frequently summarized descriptively without formal time series modelling. This study conducted a time series analysis of monthly HIV linkage to care rates in Kampala District, Uganda, using secondary routine data from the District Health Information Software covering the period from January 2015 to December 2023. Following data cleaning which involved the exclusion of the first six months of 2015 due to incomplete reporting an analytic series of 102 monthly observations was evaluated. The primary objectives were to examine the trend pattern, assess seasonal variation, and fit an advanced predictive model to generate short term forecasts for the 2024 calendar year. Decomposition and feature extraction analyses revealed a weak underlying upward trend Ft = 0.142. Furthermore, the seasonal strength score Fs = 0.213 confirmed the absence of meaningful annual seasonality, demonstrating that linkage to care rates do not follow a repeating calendar cycle. To capture the complex, nonlinear dynamics and high variance of the series, a Neural Network Autoregression (NNAR) model specifically an NNAR (1, 1, 2)12 architecture trained as an ensemble of 20 networks was fitted to the data. The validated model projected a dynamic, nonlinear linkage to care rate for the 2024 calendar year, averaging in the mid 80s with monthly point forecasts fluctuating between a low of 82.5 percent in March and a peak of 89.1 percent in May. Wide 95 percent prediction intervals (spanning roughly 64 to 110 percent) successfully accounted for the extreme historical volatility and periodic reporting anomalies, such as episodes where recorded linkage exceeded 100 percent. The findings indicate that Kampala District's healthcare network has reached operational maturity, transitioning from expansion to sustainment. The study recommends shifting broad linkage campaigns toward targeted, localized interventions for hard to reach populations, improving cross month client tracking between testing points and ART clinics to resolve reporting lags, and maintaining consistent year round resource allocation.
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ItemDeterminants of childhood stunting among children below five years in Uganda: UDHS 2016 Data analysis(Makerere University, 2026)Background: Childhood stunting remains a critical public health and developmental challenge in Uganda, reflecting chronic undernutrition and systemic environmental inequalities. This study investigated the socio-demographic, health, and environmental determinants of stunting among children under five years in Uganda. Methods: The study utilized cross-sectional data from the child dataset of the Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS). Data analysis was performed using SPSS version 27. Univariate analysis described sample baseline characteristics. Bivariate analysis was executed using Pearson's Chi-Square tests and independent samples t-tests. Multivariate analysis employed both binary logistic and probit regression models to evaluate robust independent predictors of child stunting while checking model specification consistency. Results: Preliminary univariate results showed a substantial burden of chronic malnutrition, with [Insert Stunting %] of the children classified as stunted. Bivariate assessments revealed significant differences in stunting prevalence across geographical residences, maternal education levels, and household wealth quintiles (p < 0.05). Children from rural households and mothers with no formal education exhibited higher stunting rates. Environmental variables, including safe drinking water source and improved sanitation facility access, as well as child health status (history of recent diarrhea), were strongly associated with child nutritional outcomes. The mean child dietary diversity score was significantly lower among stunted children compared to nonstunted peers. Conclusion: Addressing child stunting in Uganda demands comprehensive, multi-sectoral interventions targeting maternal education, improvements in household environmental sanitation infrastructure, rural health delivery, and targeted young child feeding strategies to enhance dietary diversity.
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ItemEffects of the central bankrate, inflation and commercial bank lending rate on GDP in Uganda. A quarterly timeseries analysis (2017-2025)(Makerere University, 2026)This study examined the effect of the Central Bank Rate (CBR), inflation and commercial bank lending rate on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Uganda using quarterly time-series data covering the period from 2017 to 2025. The study was motivated by the need to understand the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission and its influence on economic growth in Uganda. Secondary data were obtained from the Bank of Uganda (BOU), Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Bank. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach because the variables exhibited mixed orders of integration, I(0) and I(1). Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests, ARDL bounds testing for cointegration and diagnostic tests were conducted using Stata 17. The findings revealed the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among GDP, the Central Bank Rate, inflation and commercial bank lending rate. The ARDL bounds test produced an F-statistic of 5.237 which exceeded the upper critical bound at the 5 percent significance level, confirming cointegration among the variables. The long-run estimates showed that the Central Bank Rate had a negative effect on GDP (β = -0.1124), inflation had a negative effect on GDP (β = -0.0821), and the commercial bank lending rate had the strongest negative effect on GDP (β = -0.6247). The commercial bank lending rate emerged as the most influential monetary variable affecting economic growth in Uganda. The study concludes that increases in interest rates and inflation reduce economic growth in the long run, with commercial bank lending rates exerting the greatest impact on GDP. The study recommends policies aimed at reducing commercial bank lending rate spreads, strengthening monetary policy transmission mechanisms and enhancing coordination between monetary and fiscal policy to promote sustainable economic growth in Uganda.