School of Statistics and Planning (SSP) Collection
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ItemDeterminants of exchange rate volatility in Uganda.(Makerere University, 2026)Exchange rate volatility remains a persistent challenge for Uganda's commodity-dependent economy, affecting trade, investment, and macroeconomic stability under the Bank of Uganda's flexible exchange rate system. This study looks at the factors that affect the volatility of the USD/UGX exchange rate between 2010 and 2024. It focuses on monetary factors (money supply and money demand as measured by GDP and interest rates), external factors (trade balance and foreign direct investment), and the moderating effect of foreign exchange reserves. The study uses descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, GARCH (1,1) modeling to estimate conditional volatility, and multiple linear regression to evaluate the determinants of volatility using annual time-series data from the Bank of Uganda, World Bank, and IMF. Compared to the widespread belief of growing instability, the results show a steady decrease in exchange rate volatility from 2012 to 2024. While foreign direct investment inflows exhibit a considerable positive correlation with volatility, economic growth (GDP) has a strong, significant negative influence. This is probably because of shortterm pressures from big, irregular capital flows, particularly those related to oil. In the multivariate model, the money supply, interest rates, trade balance, and reserves all show negligible effects; nonetheless, reserves seem to support long-term stabilization through better fundamentals and policy credibility. Multiple regression reveals that real GDP exerts a strong, significant negative effect on volatility (β = −1.54 × 10⁻⁵, p < 0.05), suggesting that sustained economic growth substantially reduces exchange rate fluctuations. FDI inflows display a significant positive association (β = 2.63 × 10⁻⁴, p < 0.05), consistent with shortterm currency pressures from large, irregular capital flows (particularly oil-related). Money supply (M2), interest rates, trade balance, and reserves show insignificant coefficients in the multivariate model (all p > 0.05), though reserves likely support long-run stability through enhanced policy credibility and import cover.
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ItemFactors associated with adolescent’s early sexual initiation after two decades of hiv interventions in Kabale District(Makerere University, 2025)Initiation of first sexual intercourse is a key social developmental transition of youth, related to physical maturation, cognitive development, increasing awareness and appreciation of one’s body; consolidation of personal and sexual identity, and sexual relationship formation. This study assessed the predictors of adolescent’s early sexual initiation after two decades of HIV interventions in Kabale district. Method: This study utilized secondary data collected from Kabale district and employed a cross-sectional study design. It focused on adolescents aged 10-24 years, including only those who reported having ever engaged in sexual intercourse. Adolescents who had never had sex or had missing data on the variable "age at first sex" were excluded from the analysis. A final sample of 135 adolescents was selected to explore predictors of early sexual initiation. Results: Results showed that adolescents with secondary education were less likely to initiate sex early compared to adolescents with no education [OR=0.018; CI=0.002-0.139; p=0.000]. Surprisingly, the odds of early sexual initiation were lower among adolescents living with none of the parents compared to those living with both parents [OR=0.173; CI=0.340-0.751; p=0.019]. Furthermore, adolescents who were working as peasant farmers had decreased odd of early sexual initiation compared to students [OR=0.174; CI=0.047-0.644; p=0.009]. Conclusion: Given the continued relevance of HIV interventions, these findings highlight the need for targeted programs that address education, family structure, and economic opportunities to further delay sexual initiation.
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ItemFactors influencing exclusive breastfeeding practice among under six month infants in Uganda(Makerere University, 2024)Exclusive breastfeeding is where infants receive only breast milk, no other solids and liquids are included not even water. Exclusive breastfeeding contributes significantly to child survival and development. This reports a study from different parts in Uganda. The study aims to identify factors influencing mother’s choices of infant feeding practices. This preliminary report found out that 38.48% were currently breastfeeding, but the percentage increases with age. This study used data drawn from 2016 Uganda Demographic and Health survey (UDHS). Various methods were used; multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify factors significantly associated with EBF practice among under six month infants in Uganda. Respondents included were 2,479 lactating mothers. Participants who responded were selected using simple random sampling. SPSS was used for analyzing the data and presented in a descriptive study. Results show respondents ranging in the ages 30-34, 35-39, 40-44 and 45-49 were less likely to exclusively breastfeed their infants compared to those between the ages of 20-24 and 25-29 years. (OR=0.656, 95% CI=0.464-0.928. OR=0.607, 95% CI=0.415-0.886. OR=0.210,95% CI=0.134- 0.329. OR=0.055, 95% CI=0.024-0.125 respectively). Wealth status (OR=0.586,95% CI=0.442- 0.776. OR=0.512. 95% CI=0.356-0.738). Level of education (OR=0.694, 95% CI=0.521-0.925). Marital status (OR=0.670-0.952). were factors significantly associated with EBF practice among under six month infants. In summary, exclusive breastfeeding practice among under six month infants was significantly associated with mother’s age, wealth status, place of residence and occupation. Thus to increase the rate of exclusive breastfeeding in Uganda, it is important that community health is strengthened, and health workers are trained on national breastfeeding policies.
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ItemFactors associated with malaria prevalence among children aged 0–5 years in Karamoja Region(Makerere University, 2026)This study aimed at understanding and assessing the different socio-economic, malaria, and health-related factors influencing malaria prevalence among children aged 0–5 years in the Karamoja region. The study used the 2016 UDHS children dataset for children aged 0–5 years. The analysis focused on 247 children to whom the children’s questionnaire was administered. Frequencies and p-values were used to determine the relationship between malaria prevalence and socio-economic, malaria, and health-related factors. According to the results of the study, approximately 72.3% of the respondents had not attended any education, while 0.6% attended higher education as required by the health standards. In the Karamoja region, floor material, bicycle ownership, and electricity were the most important determinants influencing malaria prevalence among children aged 0–5 years. However, the study recommends strengthening the provision of information, use of mosquito bed nets, wearing clothes that cover most of the body, use of insect repellent, and staying in air-conditioned or well-screened areas. These measures would help reduce the prevalence of malaria among children aged 0–5 years.
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ItemA pricing and profit testing model for, a unit-linked endowment insurance plan for fishermen(Makerere University, 2025)The main objective of this project was to develop a pricing and profit testing model for a unit linked insurance plan tailored for fishermen that would pay out money if a fisherman becomes permanently disabled, dies, decides to stop the plan early, or lives until the plan ends. It also helps them save and invest their money for the future. other objectives were to come up with a profitable product and designing a python program that automates the pricing and profit testing for various ages and policy terms. The model has three decrements of death, permanent disability and surrender. Microsoft excel was first used to develop the pricing and profit testing model for a 20-year-old male and female life for a six-year term. The procedure was the transferred to python 3.13.3 thus coming up with a menu driven program that performs the pricing and profit testing for various ages and policy terms. The Kenyan mortality and disability tables and several assumptions and formulae were used to develop the model. The principle of equivalence and goal seek function in excel was used to come up with the exact premiums. Sensitivity analysis was then done on some assumptions for example the interest rate, inflation rate to examine the effect of the changes in the assumptions on the premiums and profit margins of the model. The results show that for a 20-year-old male life buying a 6-year plan with 9 million Ugandan shillings of coverage, the yearly payment will be Ugx 1009432.108 while for a female it is Ugx 1008166.678. The plan's profit margins (how much money the insurance company would make) varied, generally between about 3% and 14%, depending on the policy length and the person's age and gender. Premiums were noticed to be lower for longer plans but higher for older people. On the other hand, profits were usually better for longer plans but lower for older people. Sensitivity analysis also showed that how much the plan costs to set up (initial expenses) had the biggest effect on profits, while changes in death rates had the biggest effect on the premiums. This special insurance plan can really help Ugandan fishermen become more financially secure. It gives them both protection against risks and a way to build wealth. This approach could be used for other similar communities and help more people in Uganda get access to insurance